2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal
By Lev Grossman
(…), Kurzweil believes that we’re approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity – our bodies, our minds, our civilization – will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away.
Computers are getting faster. Everybody knows that. Also, computers are getting faster faster – that is, the rate at which they’re getting faster is increasing.
So if computers are getting so much faster, so incredibly fast, there might conceivably come a moment when they are capable of something comparable to human intelligence. Artificial intelligence. All that horsepower could be put in the service of emulating whatever it is our brains are doing when they create consciousness – not just doing arithmetic very quickly or composing piano music but also driving cars, writing books, making ethical decisions, appreciating fancy paintings, making witty observations at cocktail parties.
If you can swallow that idea, and Kurzweil and a lot of other very smart people can, then all bets are off. 1From that point on, there’s no reason to think computers would stop getting more powerful. 2They would keep on developing until they were far more intelligent than we are. Their rate of development would also continue to increase, because they would take over their own development from their slower-thinking human creators. Imagine a computer scientist that was itself a super-intelligent computer. It would work incredibility quickly. It could draw on huge amounts of data effortlessly. It wouldn’t even take breaks to play Farmville.
http://www.time.com/printout/0,8816,2048138,00.html. Acesso em 07/04/2011. Adaptado.
Na sentença They would keep on developing until they were far more intelligent than we are(ref. 2), o vocábulo grifado poderia ser substituído por
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